June 2024: Country and Sector Risks Barometer

2024 has kicked off rather well, much better than the two previous years, which opened with the last tremors of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022) or were marked by fears of energy shortages in Europe and a banking crisis in the United States (2023). Overall, the figures for the first quarter of 2024 are satisfactory, if not reassuring: while activity is eventually slowing in the United States, in line with the (overly?) consensual scenario of a soft landing for the world’s leading economy, the emerging countries, particularly in Asia, are now the driving force behind a world economy that is still convalescing, much like Europe, which seems, at last, to be awakening from its lethargy. The latest hard data and business surveys published in recent weeks suggest that this dynamic is still at work at the time of writing and is reflected in a noticeable rebound in international trade. While a certain euphoria continues to reign on the financial markets (especially equities), fueled by a narrative of long-term productivity gains that remain largely unproven (AI), and while some see in the monetary easing cycle that has (a priori) only begun the premises of a new bullish cycle - enough to fuel unbridled optimism - it seems useful to recall a few obvious facts.